ModelVersion 0.1Compiling data
Lead-Time Monitor
Published lead times for eleven equipment classes compiled from OEM lead-time guides, Census M3 unfilled orders over shipments, ISM supplier deliveries and backlog disclosures in filings. Every cell carries its OEM and date.
50 weeksLV switchgear, published lead time, Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide, September 2026 edition. Public headline as of September 2, 2026.
- 50 weeks
- LV switchgear (LVDO A to F), made to order, Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide, September 2026, flagged extended vs August
- 5.67 months
- Unfilled orders over shipments, NAICS 3353 electrical equipment, Census M3, July 2026 (3.2 in 2017 to 2019)
- 171 days
- Capital expenditure lead time, ISM Manufacturing Report On Business, August 2026
- +91%
- PPI power and distribution transformers (WPU117409), July 2026 vs January 2020; switchgear (WPU1175) +78%
What it covers
Eleven equipment classes: large power transformers, medium power transformers, pad-mount distribution transformers, MV switchgear, LV switchgear and switchboards, MCC and busway, UPS, diesel gensets, chillers, CDUs, and drives and PLC CPUs. For each class: the OEM-published schedule where one exists, the OEM's own statement in filings or press, the third-party survey figure labelled as theirs, and the backlog disclosed in filings. Monthly, with the publication each figure came from.
- Cadence
- Monthly, first business day, after the Schneider guide (about the 2nd) and the M3 release
- Compiled from
- Schneider Electric monthly Lead Times Guide (124 product rows, September 2026 edition); Siemens LV schedules as republished; Census M3 NAICS 3353 unfilled orders and shipments; ISM Report On Business supplier deliveries and capex lead-time table; BLS PPI WPU117409 and WPU1175; 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K backlog for POWL, CAT, GEV, ETN, VRT, GNRC, CMI
- Delivered as
- Excel workbook, Web dashboard
- Updates
- Quarterly updates, one year included
- Onboarding
- Onboarding call
- Support
- Ad hoc analyst calls
- Tier
- Headline free; class detail Pro; history and API Institutional
Who uses it and what it decides
- Plant and facilities engineersWhether to release the switchgear PO now or wait, and which class gates the energization date.
- Datacenter developers and owner's repsThe month the site can energize, and the carrying cost of the longest-lead item on the list.
- Electrical contractors and distributorsWhat delivery to carry in a bid, and which OEM to steer a job to this quarter.
- Equity and credit analysts on industrialsWhether backlogs are lengthening or clearing, a month ahead of the earnings print.
Methodology
What the headline is
50 weeks is the made-to-order lead time Schneider Electric prints for its low-voltage switchgear families (LVDO A, B, C, D and F) in the September 2026 Lead Times Guide, published 2 September 2026, with each of those six rows flagged as extended against the August edition. It is the longest lead time any OEM publishes with a date on it. The rows are in 03-schneider-flags-sep-2026.csv beside the launch piece.
The headline is always the longest OEM-published figure, never a survey number. When Siemens, Eaton or ABB publish a longer dated schedule, the headline moves to it and says so.
What it is compiled from
Version 0.1 is public records only. No panel, no survey, no calls.
- OEM-published schedules. Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide, monthly, 124 product rows parsed to CSV (switchboards 18 to 34 weeks, LV switchgear 45 to 50, MV 15 to more than 40, MCC 6 to 27, busway 24 to 40, ATS 6 to 27, drives 4 to 32, September 2026). Siemens LV schedules as republished by VAWN (LV switchgear 54 weeks, switchboards 32 to 41, busduct 27, August 2026). Rockwell publishes no product-level figure; that cell reads “none published”.
- Backlog leg. Census M3 unfilled orders over monthly shipments for NAICS 3353 (Census code 35C): 5.67 months in July 2026 against about 3.2 in 2017 to 2019. Also turbines and generators (TGP), 7.35 months.
- Deliveries leg. ISM Manufacturing Report On Business: supplier deliveries index 59.3 and the capital expenditure lead time of 171 days, August 2026.
- Price leg. BLS PPI WPU117409 (transformers, 381.8 in July 2026) and WPU1175 (switchgear, 419.3), rebased to January 2020.
- Filings leg. Backlog in dollars from Powell 10-Q ($2.4B, $1.3B shipping within 12 months, June 30 2026), Caterpillar 10-Q ($72.1B, $29.2B beyond 12 months), GE Vernova 8-K, Eaton 8-K, Vertiv 8-K ($15.0B, December 2025, not disclosed since), Generac 8-K, and the Cummins Q4 2025 call (“orders well into 2028”).
- Third-party surveys, labelled as theirs. Wood Mackenzie (128 weeks power transformers, 144 GSU, 44 MV switchgear, Q2 2025; above 160 weeks in 2026) as reported by POWER and pv magazine; Terrapin Construction Group (June 2026); Origin Partners (May 2026). Where two disagree (gensets: Terrapin 50 to 110 weeks, Origin 26 to 40), both are printed as a conflict.
Every cell includes the document, the OEM and the date. Nothing is estimated where a published figure exists.
What is free and what is paid
- Free: the headline number, this page, the eleven-class range chart in Introducing the Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor, and the monthly index letter.
- Pro ($40 a month or $400 a year): every class and every source, monthly, with the Schneider edition-to-edition flags and the M3, ISM and PPI series.
- Institutional (quote): the workbook and dashboard, the full edition history (the Schneider history file starts with September 2026), the API, quarterly updates for a year, an onboarding call and ad hoc analyst calls.
Articles built on it
Transformer Lead Times Hit 143 Weeks, Why Your Switchgear Costs 50% More Than in 2021, Cummins and Caterpillar Are Sold Out Through 2028, Chillers Are the 60-Week Problem, Vertiv Stopped Reporting Its Backlog and One Steel Mill Gates Every US Transformer all draw their lead-time and backlog figures from this table. Charts read Source: Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor.
Version history
- 0.1 (September 2026). Eleven classes. Schneider September 2026 edition, M3 through July 2026, PPI through July 2026, ISM through August 2026, filings through Q2 2026. Public records only.
What version 1 adds
A distributor and EPC panel reporting quoted versus shipped lead time by OEM and class, so the Monitor shows what a buyer was told and what arrived. Panel size and response rate will print on this page only when they are true, per the methodology. Also planned: Eaton and ABB dated schedules if they publish them, and a chiller class fed by the OEM order releases Munters, Trane and Carrier already issue.
Known gaps
PLC CPUs have no published lead time from any OEM; the cell says so. Large power transformers have no OEM schedule. The class is carried on Wood Mackenzie’s survey and the Siemens Energy statement of “up to five years” (February 2024). STS and PDUs have no public series at all. The Schneider guide is the OEM’s planning document and says it is “not to be relied upon for actual orders”. We print it as published and say whose it is.
Questions
How is this different from reading the Schneider guide myself?
The guide is one OEM, one month, 124 rows, and it is replaced each month. The Monitor keeps every edition, puts eleven classes and every source side by side, and adds the Census, ISM and filings legs that no OEM publishes.
Are quoted and shipped lead times both tracked?
Version 0.1 is published (quoted) lead times only. Shipped versus quoted comes with the distributor and EPC panel in version 1.
Why is the headline LV switchgear and not transformers?
It is the longest class for which an OEM publishes a dated schedule. Transformer figures are third-party surveys (Wood Mackenzie, Terrapin) and are labelled as theirs, never headlined as ours.
What does 'flagged extended' mean?
Schneider colours a cell orange when the lead time is longer than the prior edition. We record the flag so the month-to-month direction is on the record.
Free calculators built on this model
Articles built on this model
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Tariffs, September 2026: The Actual Schedule for Machinery and Electrical Gear
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The Recommended Spares List Is Where the Margin Hides
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800 VDC Will Strand Your White-Space Frame Agreement
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What 50 MW Costs in 15 US Markets
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Liquidated Damages at 0.5% a Week: Why Caps Sit at the Vendor's Margin
Liquidated damages in public transformer, switchgear and genset contracts run about 0.5% of price a week, capped at 5%, so as of July 2026 a week of delay on a 50 MW datacenter hall costs about $2.7 million against $74,000 of LDs, per Open Factory's Large-Load Cost Table.
How to Write an RFQ for Capital Equipment in 2026
An equipment RFQ in 2026 has to settle escalators, LDs, milestones and tariff refunds: the City of Ocala agreed $8,070,340 for two 105 MVA autotransformers in August 2023 and approved $9,170,340 for the same units on April 28, 2026, a $1.1 million PPI escalator, per Open Factory's Bid-Tab Price Book.
The 2% Funnel: 474 GW Requested, 9 GW Approved, 5.8 GW Energized in ERCOT
Texas had about 474 GW of large-load interconnection requests as of August 2026, and ERCOT's March 26, 2026 status table shows 9.0 GW approved to energize and 5.8 GW energized, so about 2% has permission to draw power, as tracked in Open Factory's Large-Load Cost Table.
CloudNC and Limitless Labs: AI Is Coming for the CNC Programming Bottleneck
CloudNC and Limitless Labs raised $40 million between them from 16 June to 8 September 2026 to automate CNC programming for the 4,790 CNC tool programmers in America's 16,619 machine shops, and Open Factory's seat math shows a 50% CAM cut returns about $22,139 a year per programmer.
The R-454B Summer: What the Refrigerant Switch Did to Chiller Prices
A 20 lb cylinder of R-454B cost $345 in 2021 and $700 to $2,000 in July and August 2025, the switch raised Carrier chiller list prices 10% in March 2024 and March 2025, and Open Factory finds the 563 lb charge in a 500-ton chiller is 1.2% of the machine.
OFCI vs Design-Build: How Hyperscalers Buy Chillers and Colo Developers Do Not
Owner-furnished, contractor-installed chillers and CDUs for a 20 MW liquid-cooled hall cost $27.9 million against $32.8 million through the mechanical subcontract, a saving of $4.9 million or 14.9%, because OFCI strips a 15% subcontractor markup and 10% GC fee, per Open Factory's Datacenter MEP Cost Table as of June 2026.
Grainger's 2017 Confession: The Year a Distributor Admitted Its List Prices Were Fiction
On April 18, 2017, W.W. Grainger told investors its first quarter fell short because customers responded to across-the-board list price cuts and new web prices on about 450,000 SKUs, and US gross margin fell 1.7 points in one quarter, a reset Open Factory's Bid-Tab Price Book traces through 2026.
Reading a Switchgear Quote: The Eleven Line Items That Hide the Schedule
A medium-voltage switchgear quote has eleven line items and four of them move the delivery date more than the price. Riverside Public Utilities paid $2,561,551.88 for one 15 kV metal-clad lineup in June 2024 and it was still in the factory eighteen months later, per Open Factory's Bid-Tab Price Book.
1,250 Hours: Reading BMW's Humanoid Pilot as a Buyer
BMW's Figure 02 humanoid pilot delivered about 1,250 operating hours in ten months at Spartanburg in 2025, or 0.6 of one worker's year, moving more than 90,000 sheet-metal parts, and it is the only pilot with a disclosed runtime among the nine Open Factory's OEM Disclosure Scorecard scores.
The $306k Machine: A Record Half-Year With Fewer Units
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From 36 Weeks to Stock: The ControlLogix Lead-Time Cycle
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A Factory Owner's Guide to the PJM Capacity Charge
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A Robot Costs $61k. The Cell Costs $150k
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The $60 Million Deposit: How Equipment Slots Became Datacenter Currency
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Who Gets the IEEPA Refund
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Behind the Meter, In Front of the Queue: 90 GW Announced, 2 GW Running
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Compressed Air Is 10% of Your Factory's Power Bill
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Five Majors Bought Their Way Into Liquid Cooling. Here Is the Price List
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Recips vs Turbines vs Fuel Cells for a 100 MW Bridge
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Nox Metals: The Detroit Startup Cutting Aluminum Plate in 36 Hours
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The 2 MW Plant Service Upgrade Nobody Budgets Right
A 400-person plant adding 2 MW of service pays $400k to $1.2M for the items the switchgear quote omits, and with the utility-owned pad-mount at 52 to 104 weeks the crane lands in week 74. Open Factory's Large-Load Cost Table shows the sequencing that pulls energization forward by 20 weeks.
Chillers Are the 60-Week Problem
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What 2,439 Public Change Orders Show About Electrical and Mechanical Contractors
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Copper at $6.77: How a 50% Tariff Shows Up in a 200-Amp Panel
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The Used and Refurbished Market Nobody Indexes
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1872, Foundational Industries and Hadrian: Three Blueprints for the Autonomous American Factory
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When a Megapack Beats a Static UPS
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The OEM Disclosure Scorecard: Who Tells Buyers Anything
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Rockwell's 250 Basis Points: How Tariffs Show Up in Your PLC Quote
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Datacenter Construction Is Eating Your Electricians
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Why Your Switchgear Costs 50% More Than in 2021
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The 30% Fuel-Cell ITC Is the Last Federal Subsidy for On-Site Power
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Vertiv Stopped Reporting Its Backlog. Here Is Our Estimate
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Transformer Lead Times Hit 143 Weeks: Who Gets Delivered First
A generator step-up transformer ordered in the United States was quoted at 143 weeks in the second quarter of 2025, a substation power transformer at 128 weeks and medium-voltage switchgear at 44, per Wood Mackenzie, against about 50 weeks in 2021, and Open Factory's Lead-Time Monitor lists both readings.
Quote Check: What Your Switchgear Quote Should Have Said
Open Factory's Quote Check tool places a switchgear quote against public awards: Riverside Public Utilities paid $2,254,387.50 for a 15 kV metal-clad lineup in May 2025, 52% above the $1,481,321 median of 12 public awards dated December 2016 to May 2025 in the Public Bid-Tab Price Book.
One Steel Mill Gates Every US Transformer
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MES Is a Consulting Product
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Tariff Bill of Materials: What Sections 232 and 301 Add to a UPS, a Lineup, a Genset and a Megapack
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The Copper and Wire Price Sheet, Weekly
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Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
Open Factory's Large-Load Cost Table, version 0.1, compares a 50 MW connection across 15 US utilities on eight tariff cells each: 53 of the 120 cells come from primary documents, 20 from trade press, 2 from arithmetic, and 45 are not published anywhere, as of August 2026.
The $2,850 Report That Says Nothing
IBISWorld's $2,850 ProcurementIQ switchgear report prices the whole category at one $37,300 benchmark, while the 118 public awards in Open Factory's Public Bid-Tab Price Book run from $12,492 for a pad-mount switch in 2019 to $3,827,000 for a 34.5 kV lineup in September 2024.
Introducing the Public Bid-Tab Price Book
Open Factory's Public Bid-Tab Price Book launches as version 0.1 with 2,712 public award lines and 51 price bands, and across 297 lines dated January 2024 to August 2026 the median three-phase pad-mount price runs from $153 per kVA at 75 to 167 kVA to $30 at 1,500 to 2,500.
Cummins and Caterpillar Are Sold Out Through 2028
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The 171-Day Capex Lead Time: ISM's Most Ignored Table
The average US manufacturing buyer commits to capital equipment 171 days ahead of need in the August 2026 ISM report, with 27% committing more than a year out, against 147 days in December 2019. Open Factory's Lead-Time Monitor rebuilds the series back to 2007.
Book-to-Bill League Table, Q2 2026: Every Electrical OEM
Powell Industries posted a book-to-bill of 3.0 in the quarter to June 30 2026, booking $934 million of switchgear orders against $312 million shipped, and all eight electrical OEMs that print a ratio sit above 1.0, down to Eaton at 1.2, in Open Factory's Book-to-Bill League Table.
Introducing the Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
Schneider Electric quotes low-voltage switchgear at 50 weeks from release to manufacturing in its September 2026 Lead Times Guide, and Open Factory's Lead-Time Monitor, launched as version 0.1, puts all eleven equipment classes in one table, of which only four have an OEM-published lead time.