ModelVersion 0.1Compiling data
Lead-Time Monitor
Published lead times for eleven equipment classes compiled from OEM lead-time guides, Census M3 unfilled orders over shipments, ISM supplier deliveries and backlog disclosures in filings. Every cell carries its OEM and date.
50 weeksLV switchgear, published lead time, Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide, September 2026 edition. Public headline as of September 2, 2026.
- 50 weeks
- LV switchgear (LVDO A to F), made to order, Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide, September 2026, flagged extended vs August
- 5.67 months
- Unfilled orders over shipments, NAICS 3353 electrical equipment, Census M3, July 2026 (3.2 in 2017 to 2019)
- 171 days
- Capital expenditure lead time, ISM Manufacturing Report On Business, August 2026
- +91%
- PPI power and distribution transformers (WPU117409), July 2026 vs January 2020; switchgear (WPU1175) +78%
What it covers
Eleven equipment classes: large power transformers, medium power transformers, pad-mount distribution transformers, MV switchgear, LV switchgear and switchboards, MCC and busway, UPS, diesel gensets, chillers, CDUs, and drives and PLC CPUs. For each class: the OEM-published schedule where one exists, the OEM's own statement in filings or press, the third-party survey figure labelled as theirs, and the backlog disclosed in filings. Monthly, with the publication each figure came from.
- Cadence
- Monthly, first business day, after the Schneider guide (about the 2nd) and the M3 release
- Compiled from
- Schneider Electric monthly Lead Times Guide (124 product rows, September 2026 edition); Siemens LV schedules as republished; Census M3 NAICS 3353 unfilled orders and shipments; ISM Report On Business supplier deliveries and capex lead-time table; BLS PPI WPU117409 and WPU1175; 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K backlog for POWL, CAT, GEV, ETN, VRT, GNRC, CMI
- Delivered as
- Excel workbook, Web dashboard
- Updates
- Quarterly updates, one year included
- Onboarding
- Onboarding call
- Support
- Ad hoc analyst calls
- Tier
- Headline free; class detail Pro; history and API Institutional
Who uses it and what it decides
- Plant and facilities engineersWhether to release the switchgear PO now or wait, and which class gates the energization date.
- Datacenter developers and owner's repsThe month the site can energize, and the carrying cost of the longest-lead item on the list.
- Electrical contractors and distributorsWhat delivery to carry in a bid, and which OEM to steer a job to this quarter.
- Equity and credit analysts on industrialsWhether backlogs are lengthening or clearing, a month ahead of the earnings print.
Methodology
What the headline is
50 weeks is the made-to-order lead time Schneider Electric prints for its low-voltage switchgear families (LVDO A, B, C, D and F) in the September 2026 Lead Times Guide, published 2 September 2026, with each of those six rows flagged as extended against the August edition. It is the longest lead time any OEM publishes with a date on it. The rows are in 03-schneider-flags-sep-2026.csv beside the launch piece.
The headline is always the longest OEM-published figure, never a survey number. When Siemens, Eaton or ABB publish a longer dated schedule, the headline moves to it and says so.
What it is compiled from
Version 0.1 is public records only. No panel, no survey, no calls.
- OEM-published schedules. Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide, monthly, 124 product rows parsed to CSV (switchboards 18 to 34 weeks, LV switchgear 45 to 50, MV 15 to more than 40, MCC 6 to 27, busway 24 to 40, ATS 6 to 27, drives 4 to 32, September 2026). Siemens LV schedules as republished by VAWN (LV switchgear 54 weeks, switchboards 32 to 41, busduct 27, August 2026). Rockwell publishes no product-level figure; that cell reads “none published”.
- Backlog leg. Census M3 unfilled orders over monthly shipments for NAICS 3353 (Census code 35C): 5.67 months in July 2026 against about 3.2 in 2017 to 2019. Also turbines and generators (TGP), 7.35 months.
- Deliveries leg. ISM Manufacturing Report On Business: supplier deliveries index 59.3 and the capital expenditure lead time of 171 days, August 2026.
- Price leg. BLS PPI WPU117409 (transformers, 381.8 in July 2026) and WPU1175 (switchgear, 419.3), rebased to January 2020.
- Filings leg. Backlog in dollars from Powell 10-Q ($2.4B, $1.3B shipping within 12 months, June 30 2026), Caterpillar 10-Q ($72.1B, $29.2B beyond 12 months), GE Vernova 8-K, Eaton 8-K, Vertiv 8-K ($15.0B, December 2025, not disclosed since), Generac 8-K, and the Cummins Q4 2025 call (“orders well into 2028”).
- Third-party surveys, labelled as theirs. Wood Mackenzie (128 weeks power transformers, 144 GSU, 44 MV switchgear, Q2 2025; above 160 weeks in 2026) as reported by POWER and pv magazine; Terrapin Construction Group (June 2026); Origin Partners (May 2026). Where two disagree (gensets: Terrapin 50 to 110 weeks, Origin 26 to 40), both are printed as a conflict.
Every cell includes the document, the OEM and the date. Nothing is estimated where a published figure exists.
What is free and what is paid
- Free: the headline number, this page, the eleven-class range chart in Introducing the Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor, and the monthly index letter.
- Pro ($40 a month or $400 a year): every class and every source, monthly, with the Schneider edition-to-edition flags and the M3, ISM and PPI series.
- Institutional (quote): the workbook and dashboard, the full edition history (the Schneider history file starts with September 2026), the API, quarterly updates for a year, an onboarding call and ad hoc analyst calls.
Articles built on it
Transformer Lead Times Hit 143 Weeks, Why Your Switchgear Costs 50% More Than in 2021, Cummins and Caterpillar Are Sold Out Through 2028, Chillers Are the 60-Week Problem, Vertiv Stopped Reporting Its Backlog and One Steel Mill Gates Every US Transformer all draw their lead-time and backlog figures from this table. Charts read Source: Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor.
Version history
- 0.1 (September 2026). Eleven classes. Schneider September 2026 edition, M3 through July 2026, PPI through July 2026, ISM through August 2026, filings through Q2 2026. Public records only.
What version 1 adds
A distributor and EPC panel reporting quoted versus shipped lead time by OEM and class, so the Monitor shows what a buyer was told and what arrived. Panel size and response rate will print on this page only when they are true, per the methodology. Also planned: Eaton and ABB dated schedules if they publish them, and a chiller class fed by the OEM order releases Munters, Trane and Carrier already issue.
Known gaps
PLC CPUs have no published lead time from any OEM; the cell says so. Large power transformers have no OEM schedule. The class is carried on Wood Mackenzie’s survey and the Siemens Energy statement of “up to five years” (February 2024). STS and PDUs have no public series at all. The Schneider guide is the OEM’s planning document and says it is “not to be relied upon for actual orders”. We print it as published and say whose it is.
Questions
How is this different from reading the Schneider guide myself?
The guide is one OEM, one month, 124 rows, and it is replaced each month. The Monitor keeps every edition, puts eleven classes and every source side by side, and adds the Census, ISM and filings legs that no OEM publishes.
Are quoted and shipped lead times both tracked?
Version 0.1 is published (quoted) lead times only. Shipped versus quoted comes with the distributor and EPC panel in version 1.
Why is the headline LV switchgear and not transformers?
It is the longest class for which an OEM publishes a dated schedule. Transformer figures are third-party surveys (Wood Mackenzie, Terrapin) and are labelled as theirs, never headlined as ours.
What does 'flagged extended' mean?
Schneider colours a cell orange when the lead time is longer than the prior edition. We record the flag so the month-to-month direction is on the record.
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