Record

Every call we have made, with the date it can be checked.

A research desk earns trust by being scored, not by being cited. This page lists each forward-looking call in our articles and roadmaps as a one-line claim, the public series that settles it, and the date it resolves. On that date the row is marked right, partial or wrong with a note, and the original wording is never changed. 60 calls so far; 0 have come due. The next resolves October 31, 2026.

MadeCallResolvesScored againstResult

Vertiv Stopped Reporting Its Backlog. Here Is Our Estimate
Vertiv's Q3 2026 10-Q will print September 30, 2026 current deferred revenue of about $3.3B (low), $3.9B (mid) or $4.8B (high).
Measured as: Vertiv ContractWithCustomerLiabilityCurrent at 2026-09-30, $ billion
Vertiv Q3 2026 10-Q via SEC XBRL,Open

The 171-Day Capex Lead Time: ISM's Most Ignored Table
The transformer PPI (WPU117409) year-over-year rate keeps rising through about November 2026.
Measured as: BLS PPI WPU117409 (transformers), year-over-year % change, monthly prints through Nov 2026
BLS PPI series WPU117409Open

Behind the Meter, In Front of the Queue: 90 GW Announced, 2 GW Running
3.0 GW of behind-the-meter datacenter generation is operating in the US at the end of 2026.
Measured as: Operating US behind-the-meter datacenter generation capacity, GW, at end-2026 (Cleanview count)
Cleanview behind-the-meter datacenter reportOpen

Book-to-Bill League Table, Q2 2026: Every Electrical OEM
ABB Electrification raises list prices on LV and MV gear in the second half of 2026.
Measured as: ABB Electrification list price increases announced or reported for LV and MV products in H2 2026
ABB Q3 and Q4 2026 results releases and distributor price-increase noticesOpen

The 2% Funnel: 474 GW Requested, 9 GW Approved, 5.8 GW Energized in ERCOT
About 90 to 110 GW of the roughly 200 GW of ERCOT Batch Zero data center load under the Abbott audit survives verification.
Measured as: GW of Batch Zero large-load requests surviving the PUCT/ERCOT verification audit
PUCT verification report (December 10, 2026) and December 17 open meeting; ERCOT Large Load Interconnection status reportsOpen

The 30% Fuel-Cell ITC Is the Last Federal Subsidy for On-Site Power
Bloom Energy does not cut fuel-cell pricing in 2026.
Measured as: Bloom Energy product pricing and gross margin trend, FY2026
Bloom Energy FY2026 10-K and quarterly releasesOpen

Why Your Switchgear Costs 50% More Than in 2021
Switchgear producer prices will not fall before 2027 even if copper does; nothing that could reverse the rise is scheduled before 2027.
Measured as: BLS switchgear and switchboard PPI (PCU335313335313), level vs 394.8 in Jul 2026
FRED PCU335313335313,Open

The 171-Day Capex Lead Time: ISM's Most Ignored Table
The switchgear PPI (WPU1175) year-over-year rate turns back up around February 2027 after sliding from 13.4% to 9.3%.
Measured as: BLS PPI WPU1175 (switchgear), year-over-year % change, around Feb 2027 vs the preceding months
BLS PPI series WPU1175Open

Vertiv Stopped Reporting Its Backlog. Here Is Our Estimate
Vertiv's FY2026 10-K will print a December 31, 2026 backlog between $16.4B and $26.2B, mid case $20.6B.
Measured as: Vertiv backlog at 2026-12-31 as disclosed in the FY2026 10-K, $ billion
Vertiv FY2026 Form 10-K, SEC EDGAR CIK 0001674101Open

Who Gets the IEEPA Refund
A buyer whose PO carries the refund-allocation clause (seller files CAPE and remits) has its 2025 IEEPA duty back by early 2027.
Measured as: Timing of CBP CAPE refund disbursement on 2025 entries and vendor remittance to buyers
CBP CSMS messages on CAPE refund issuance; Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement customs refundsOpen

The $306k Machine: A Record Half-Year With Fewer Units
A standard Japanese five-axis machining center ordered in September 2026 ships around April 2027 at the industry's current throughput.
Measured as: Delivery month for a standard Japanese five-axis VMC ordered Sep 2026 (JMTBA backlog-to-sales months; builder quoted lead times)
JMTBA monthly order backlog and sales releases; DMG MORI IR backlog disclosures; Open Factory Equipment Price Benchmark delivery-date rowsOpen

Transformer Lead Times Hit 143 Weeks: Who Gets Delivered First
Generator step-up transformers are the class that eases first; cancelled renewable projects release 34.5 kV to 138 kV GSU delivery positions over the two years to late 2027.
Measured as: Wood Mackenzie survey GSU lead time, weeks (143 in Q2 2025), relative to power and distribution classes
Wood Mackenzie T&D survey,Open

1872, Foundational Industries and Hadrian: Three Blueprints for the Autonomous American Factory
A buyer of rack enclosures in 2027 will have a US-built option from Foundational Industries, whose first plant opens by the end of 2026.
Measured as: Foundational Industries first US facility operational by end-2026 and shipping rack enclosures to customers in 2027
Foundational Industries announcements and trade pressOpen

Factory Automation Roadmap
Cobots pass 30% of North American robot units on a full-year basis in 2027.
Measured as: A3 cobot share of North American robot units ordered, full-year 2027, percent
A3 annual North American robot orders release; The Robot Report coverageOpen

Behind the Meter, In Front of the Queue: 90 GW Announced, 2 GW Running
7.4 GW of behind-the-meter datacenter generation is operating in the US at the end of 2027.
Measured as: Operating US behind-the-meter datacenter generation capacity, GW, at end-2027 (Cleanview count)
Cleanview behind-the-meter datacenter reportOpen

One Steel Mill Gates Every US Transformer
Cleveland-Cliffs' Butler Works cannot produce GOES coil wider than 920 mm before 2028 at the earliest.
Measured as: Maximum finished GOES coil width at Butler Works; any wider mill or new US GOES line commissioned before 2028
Cleveland-Cliffs 10-K and press releases, DOE award announcementsOpen

Chillers Are the 60-Week Problem
Trane and Carrier have open 2027 chiller capacity; Modine and Munters do not.
Measured as: Availability of 2027 chiller delivery slots at Trane and Carrier versus Modine (Airedale) and Munters, per filings, calls and published delivery windows
Trane, Carrier, Modine and Munters 2026 and 2027 earnings releases and order announcements (SEC EDGAR, Cision)Open

Five Majors Bought Their Way Into Liquid Cooling. Here Is the Price List
CoolIT CDU hardware holds price through the 2026 to 2027 negotiation cycle; Ecolab moves margin into attached fluid, filtration and monitoring contracts instead of cutting hardware price.
Measured as: CoolIT/Ecolab CDU hardware price per kW, 2026 to 2027
Open Factory Equipment Price Benchmark CDU cell; Ecolab Global High-Tech segment pricing commentary in 10-K/10-QOpen

Cooling Roadmap
Large water-cooled chiller lead times stay above 40 weeks through 2027.
Measured as: Quoted lead time for water-cooled chillers over 1,000 tons, weeks, through Q4 2027
Origin Partners equipment lead-times tracker; Open Factory Lead-Time MonitorOpen

Cooling Roadmap
CDU lead times fall in 2027, before chiller lead times do.
Measured as: Quoted CDU lead time, weeks, in 2027 vs the 30 to 50 week May 2026 baseline
Origin Partners equipment lead-times tracker; Open Factory Lead-Time MonitorOpen

Cummins and Caterpillar Are Sold Out Through 2028
Cummins and Caterpillar large-genset lead times do not shorten before 2028.
Measured as: Published lead time for 1,500 kW and larger diesel gensets, weeks (Lead-Time Monitor genset rows)
Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor genset rows; Terrapin Construction Group lead-time sheet; Cummins and Caterpillar 10-Q backlog disclosuresOpen

OFCI vs Design-Build: How Hyperscalers Buy Chillers and Colo Developers Do Not
The 50 to 70 week lead-time range for water-cooled chillers over 1,000 tons does not close before 2028.
Measured as: Published lead time for water-cooled chillers over 1,000 tons, weeks (Lead-Time Monitor cell, currently Origin Partners tracker)
Origin Partners equipment lead-times tracker and successor editions; Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor chiller rowOpen

Tariffs, September 2026: The Actual Schedule for Machinery and Electrical Gear
The Section 232 Annex III 15% tier will not be extended for machine tools past December 31, 2027; machining centers revert to MFN plus 25% on January 1, 2028.
Measured as: Whether a proclamation extends heading 9903.82.10 (Annex III) for 8457.10.00 beyond 2027-12-31
Federal Register proclamations amending Proclamation 11021 cl. 7; HTS chapter 99; CBP CSMS 68855869Open

Transformer Lead Times Hit 143 Weeks: Who Gets Delivered First
US transformer lead times will not return to their 2019 level (about 50 weeks, under a year) before 2028.
Measured as: Wood Mackenzie T&D survey average US power transformer lead time, weeks (128 in Q2 2025)
Wood Mackenzie T&D supply chain survey notes,Open

Vertiv Stopped Reporting Its Backlog. Here Is Our Estimate
Vertiv's 2027 output is allocated before 2027 starts: a PO for Vertiv power or thermal gear placed after December 2026 is a 2028 delivery unless it displaces another slot.
Measured as: Quoted delivery dates on Vertiv UPS, busway, PDU and CDU orders placed in Q1 2027
Vertiv FY2026 10-K backlog and shipment-window language; Lead-Time Monitor published UPS and CDU lead times (Terrapin,Open

Cummins and Caterpillar Are Sold Out Through 2028
A 3 MW diesel genset PO placed in September 2026 delivers between Q4 2027 and Q3 2028.
Measured as: Delivery date of a 2,500 to 3,500 kW diesel genset ordered September 2026 (62 to 82 week lead time)
Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor genset rows; Terrapin Construction Group slot-reservation lead times; Central States Diesel Generators (https://csdieselgenerators.com/the-ai-data-center-boom-and-generator-shortage-lead-times-prices/)Open

Factory Automation Roadmap
The next PLC lead-time spike comes with the 2027 to 2028 datacenter electrical build.
Measured as: Rockwell ControlLogix / PLC lead time (distributor-reported), weeks, vs 2026 baseline
Rockwell supply-chain lead-times page; distributor lead-time reports; Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor PLC cellOpen

Factory Automation Roadmap
By 2028 the controller vendors sell the PLC as a subscription tied to their software stack.
Measured as: Rockwell or Siemens offering PLC hardware under a subscription tied to its software stack (yes/no) by end-2028
Rockwell Automation and Siemens Digital Industries product announcements, price lists and annual reportsOpen

Behind the Meter, In Front of the Queue: 90 GW Announced, 2 GW Running
15 GW of behind-the-meter datacenter generation is operating at the end of 2028 (base case), within a 10 to 22 GW range.
Measured as: Operating US behind-the-meter datacenter generation capacity, GW, at end-2028 (Cleanview count); base 15 GW, range 10 to 22 GW
Cleanview behind-the-meter datacenter reportOpen

Behind the Meter, In Front of the Queue: 90 GW Announced, 2 GW Running
Project Kilby, Homer City, GW Ranch and the back half of Project Matador do not reach their announced capacity until 2029 to 2031, not 2028.
Measured as: Operating capacity at Kilby (Pecos, TX), Homer City (PA), GW Ranch (Pecos County, TX) and Fermi's Matador second phase at end-2028 versus announced capacity
EIA-860M planned and operating generator inventory, Chevron, Fermi America and Amazon filings and releasesOpen

Behind the Meter, In Front of the Queue: 90 GW Announced, 2 GW Running
The twelve named campuses with 30.2 GW announced have 8.8 to 14.2 GW running by the end of 2028, with GW Ranch at zero.
Measured as: Combined operating GW at end-2028 across the twelve named campuses (Frontier, VoltaGrid Oracle sites, Joule, Matador, Abilene, Monarch, Wartsila orders, Kilby, Homer City, Jupiter, Cheyenne, GW Ranch)
Cleanview behind-the-meter datacenter report, state air permits and company filingsOpen

Chillers Are the 60-Week Problem
A buyer negotiating Trane applied chillers in H2 2026 gets 2028 delivery on standard terms and 2027 delivery only on OFCI terms with a slot fee.
Measured as: Trane applied chiller delivery dates quoted for orders placed in H2 2026 on standard terms versus OFCI slot-fee terms
Trane Technologies earnings calls and backlog disclosures; Origin Partners equipment lead-time trackerOpen

Cooling Roadmap
By 2028 the CDU is bundled with switchgear and UPS in hyperscale reference designs and the standalone CDU quote disappears for hyperscale.
Measured as: Presence of CDU in Vertiv/Schneider/Eaton hyperscale reference designs as a bundled line by 2028 (yes/no)
Vertiv, Schneider Electric and Eaton reference design documentation; NVIDIA partner reference architecturesOpen

Cooling Roadmap
Large water-cooled chiller lead times fall toward 30 weeks in 2028.
Measured as: Quoted lead time for water-cooled chillers over 1,000 tons, weeks, during 2028
Origin Partners equipment lead-times tracker; Trane, Carrier, JCI published lead times; Open Factory Lead-Time MonitorOpen

Datacenter Electrical Roadmap 2026 to 2032
White-space distribution bought for under 200 kW per rack in 2026 is replaced or bypassed before full depreciation at any site hosting a 2027 or 2028 GPU generation.
Measured as: Retrofit or bypass of sub-200 kW/rack busway and PDU at sites deploying 2027 to 2028 GPU racks
Hyperscaler and colo retrofit disclosures; Vertiv, Schneider, Eaton 800 VDC white-space product rolloutsOpen

Datacenter Electrical Roadmap 2026 to 2032
BESS displaces the static UPS in new hyperscale halls that accept two nines of uptime by 2028.
Measured as: Hyperscale new-build halls specifying utility-scale BESS in place of static UPS, by end-2028 (yes/no)
Hyperscaler design disclosures; Tesla Megapack deployment reports; Open Factory BESS-as-UPS coverageOpen

Datacenter Electrical Roadmap 2026 to 2032
Solid-state transformers appear at the 800 VDC boundary inside the datacenter hall from 2028.
Measured as: Commercial SST deployments at the 800 VDC boundary inside a datacenter hall, from 2028 (yes/no)
Eaton (Resilient Power), ABB, Hitachi Energy, Heron Power product releases and customer announcements; LVDC SST working groupOpen

Datacenter Electrical Roadmap 2026 to 2032
Large power transformer lead times do not fall below 100 weeks before 2029.
Measured as: Large power transformer lead time, weeks, each year through 2028
Wood Mackenzie transformer survey as reported by pv magazine; Open Factory Lead-Time MonitorOpen

What 50 MW Costs in 15 US Markets
Three markets (Houston under CenterPoint, Phoenix under SRP, northern Indiana under I&M) can still energize a 50 MW load requested in Q3 2026 in 2028.
Measured as: Whether sub-threshold 50 MW loads requested in Q3 2026 take service in 2028 in CenterPoint, SRP and I&M territories
CenterPoint, SRP and Indiana Michigan Power large-load energization disclosures and earnings callsOpen

800 VDC Will Strand Your White-Space Frame Agreement
MV switchgear, transformers and gensets stay the same SKU under 800 VDC through 2029; UPS, busway and PDU SKUs change before then.
Measured as: Whether published 800 VDC reference architectures (NVIDIA, Vertiv, Schneider) replace MV switchgear, transformer or genset SKUs, and whether they replace 415 V UPS, AC busway and AC PDU SKUs, by end-2029
NVIDIA 800 VDC architecture blog and Vertiv 800 VDC releasesOpen

Cooling Roadmap
Single-phase cold plates carry every GPU generation through 2029.
Measured as: Primary cooling method of each NVIDIA (and peer) GPU rack generation released through 2029
NVIDIA reference designs; Dell'Oro liquid cooling reportsOpen

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2028 to 2029 in Houston (CenterPoint), Phoenix under SRP, Salt Lake City (Rocky Mountain Power) and northern Indiana (I&M).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in CenterPoint, SRP, Rocky Mountain Power and I&M territories
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2029 in Dallas (Oncor), AEP Texas, Phoenix under APS and Louisiana (Entergy).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in Oncor, AEP Texas, APS and Entergy Louisiana territories
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

Large-Load Policy Tracker by State
Dallas and Houston large loads energize in 2028 to 2029, assuming Batch Zero proceeds in 2027 with a smaller queue.
Measured as: Energization year for Batch Zero large loads in Dallas and Houston (ERCOT)
ERCOT Batch Zero final transmission plan (fall 2027) and large-load updates; Open Factory Large-Load Cost TableOpen

What 50 MW Costs in 15 US Markets
A 50 MW load requested in Houston (CenterPoint) in Q3 2026 can be live in 2028 (table range 2028 to 2029).
Measured as: Energization year for a sub-75 MW CenterPoint facility-extension load requested in Q3 2026
CenterPoint Energy earnings disclosures on data center energizations (e.g.; ERCOT large-load reportsOpen

Factory Automation Roadmap
A humanoid stays a pilot line item, not a capex line, through 2030; no public deck shows a RaaS rate under $20 an hour at two shifts.
Measured as: Public humanoid RaaS rate per hour at two shifts, and any fleet deployment booked as capex, through 2030
Agility, Figure, Apptronik public decks and filings; BMW and other operator pilot disclosures; Interact Analysis humanoid installationsOpen

Cooling Roadmap
Two-phase and immersion cooling stay under 10% of liquid-cooled capacity through 2030.
Measured as: Two-phase plus immersion share of liquid-cooled datacenter capacity, percent, each year to 2030
Dell'Oro data center liquid cooling market reports; Uptime Institute cooling surveyOpen

The 2% Funnel: 474 GW Requested, 9 GW Approved, 5.8 GW Energized in ERCOT
About 20 to 30 GW of the audited ERCOT Batch Zero data center load is drawing power by 2030.
Measured as: ERCOT observed energized large-load (data center) capacity from the Batch Zero pool, GW, end of 2030
ERCOT Large Load Interconnection Requests status table, observed energized rowOpen

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2029 to 2030 in the Carolinas (Duke) and Colorado (Xcel).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in Duke Carolinas and Xcel Colorado territories
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2031 in Atlanta (Georgia Power) and Chicago (ComEd).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in Georgia Power and ComEd territories
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

Datacenter Electrical Roadmap 2026 to 2032
BESS does not displace the static UPS in plants with process loads (semiconductor, pharma, paper) through 2032.
Measured as: Static UPS still specified for process-load plants (semiconductor, pharma, paper) through 2032
Semiconductor, pharma and paper plant electrical specifications; UPS vendor segment disclosures (Vertiv, Schneider, Eaton)Open

Datacenter Electrical Roadmap 2026 to 2032
Solid-state transformers do not replace the oil-filled substation transformer at the fence through 2032; it stays the longest-lead item on the site.
Measured as: Oil-filled substation transformer still specified at the fence and still the longest-lead site item, through 2032
Wood Mackenzie transformer lead-time surveys; Heron Power and OEM MV SST deployments; Open Factory Lead-Time MonitorOpen

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2031 to 2032 in the Bay Area (PG&E).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in PG&E territory
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

What Hyperscaler Nuclear PPAs Tell a Factory Negotiating a 15-Year Contract
By 2032 hyperscalers will have 5.8 GW of nuclear under contract, 5.6 GW from already-built reactors, covering 6% to 9% of forecast datacenter load.
Measured as: GW of hyperscaler nuclear PPAs in delivery in 2032; share from existing or restarted reactors; ratio to published US datacenter load forecasts
Constellation, Talen, Vistra, NextEra SEC filings; Kairos and Amazon SMR releases; LBNL, Grid Strategies and BloombergNEF datacenter load forecastsOpen

What Hyperscaler Nuclear PPAs Tell a Factory Negotiating a 15-Year Contract
No reactor beyond those already named (Crane, Susquehanna, Clinton, Comanche Peak, Duane Arnold, plus the SMR agreements) will hold a hyperscaler contract delivering in 2032.
Measured as: List of US reactors under hyperscaler PPA delivering in 2032 versus the December 2025 deal book (data/deal-book.csv)
SEC 8-K filings and press releases from Constellation, Talen, Vistra, NextEra, PSEG, Dominion and other nuclear owners announcing hyperscaler PPAsOpen

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2031 to 2033 in Columbus (AEP Ohio).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in AEP Ohio territory
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

Introducing the Large-Load Cost Table: 15 Markets Side by Side
A 50 MW large-load request filed in Q3 2026 energizes in 2033 in Northern Virginia (Dominion).
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW request filed Q3 2026 in Dominion territory
Utility energization dates for 50 MW requests filed in Q3 2026 (utility large-load reports and PUC dockets); Open Factory Large-Load Cost Table energization column (/models/large-load-cost-table/)Open

Large-Load Policy Tracker by State
A 50 MW load applying in Columbus (AEP Ohio DCT) energizes in 2031 to 2033.
Measured as: Energization year for a new 50 MW large-load connection in AEP Ohio territory
AEP Ohio data center tariff study tranche outcomes; Open Factory Large-Load Cost TableOpen

Large-Load Policy Tracker by State
A 50 MW load in Dominion territory (Northern Virginia) under GS-5 energizes in 2033.
Measured as: Energization year for a new 50 MW large-load connection in Dominion Virginia territory
Virginia SCC dockets (PUR-2025-00058, PUR-2026-00056); Dominion large-load interconnection disclosures; Open Factory Large-Load Cost TableOpen

What 50 MW Costs in 15 US Markets
A 50 MW connection requested in Northern Virginia (Dominion GS-5) in Q3 2026 energizes in 2033.
Measured as: Energization year for a 50 MW Dominion GS-5 load requested in Q3 2026
Dominion Energy large-load queue disclosures; Virginia SCC dockets PUR-2025-00058 and PUR-2026-00056; JLL Global Data Center OutlookOpen

How a call is scored

A call goes on this page when an article or roadmap states, in our own voice, that a measurable thing will happen by a date. Reported third-party forecasts do not count. On the resolve date we check the named source and mark the row right (the number and the direction), partial (direction right, number off, or the window slipped by a quarter), or wrong, with a one-line note. A call we no longer stand behind is marked withdrawn with the date and the reason, and stays on the page. The exact sentence each row was taken from is in the row's tooltip, and the piece is linked, so the wording can be checked against the original.

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